AUKUS: intentions and challenges for the region
Australia, the U.K., the U.S. Trilateral Enhanced Security Partnership, also known as AUKUS, was established on September 16, 2021. AUKUS particularly has three main elements: first, enlarging relations between industries and technology sectors among the parties, mainly focusing on cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and undersea capability. Second, granting Australia defense force obtain a variety of updated more long-range strike capabilities from the U.S. Third, a massive submarine contract which the U.S. and the UK will assist Australia in acquiring at least eight conventionally armed nuclear power submarines to respond to security risk. The signing agreement has gained global intention as controversy occurred between Australia, the U.S. and France.
In terms of strategic perspectives, each of the AUKUS members has various reasons to form this new alliance. Australia has four core reasons. First, Australia and China bilateral relation has been worsening drastically in the last few years, in which Australia’s membership in AUKUS is a turning point for its foreign policy towards China. Canberra purposely sends this message to China that, unlike in the past, Canberra will take a more serious confrontation towards China by boosting military with the U.S. and the UK. Second, in July 2020, Australia released their strategic update, which grim assessment to China. As a result, Australia joins AUKUS to seek closer strategic and military cooperation with the U.S. to counter declining security in the South China Sea. Third, Australia will benefit from the U.S. and the U.K. in technology, military, and especially submarine domestic industries. Last but not least, Australia can also prove itself to be reliable and committed allies of the U.S. Meanwhile, Australia can seize the opportunities as the UK is leaning toward Indo-Pacific and undergoing a major foreign policy orientation from Europe to Indo-Pacific. Therefore, Australia can draw the UK closer and respond to China in other emerging threats.
For the UK, AUKUS presents variable opportunities to emerge Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit foreign policy, allowing the UK to engage in Indo-Pacific militarily and jointly counter China. For the U.S., the outcome from military withdrawal from Afghanistan is one of the reasons which has raised questions on its commitment to Asia. With AUKUS, the U.S. can reassure its remaining position and interest with Indo-Pacific and react consequently to China. Second, the U.S. aims to bring Australia closer within its military hardware ecosystem. Third, by signing this contract, U.S. workers will get a well-paid job in the construction of nuclear power submarines, following by President Joe Biden policy which any U.S. engagement on the international stage shall benefit workers at home.
AUKUS creation presents controversy between Australia and France and between France and the U.S. It is important to recall the 2016 agreement between Australia and a French ships builder known as “The Naval Group” to manufacture at least 12 conventionally armed diesel power submarines to Australia by 2027. However, as AUKUS was established, it has put an end to that contract which upset Paris. Whereas, Biden did not priorly inform France about the cancellation and France was left out from this new agreement, making France a complete stranger to their allies. Since September 16, 2021, France decided to call its Washington and Canberra envoys back home to message that Paris was upset for being left out. Strategically, French PM Emmanuel Macron did this to ensure his reputation for the 2022 reelection. He decides to promote EU sovereignty, independent from the U.S. militarily and strategically for its autonomy.
Mr. Bong Chansambath said that AUKUS would not be a threat to the EU. In contrast, it would create tension between the US and France. It would cut back the strategic relevance of the EU in the Indo-Pacific, indicate that the U.S. is gradually aggravated by the EU’s non-confrontational attitude towards China. It is expected an increasing tension between Europe and China as the UK is part of AUKUS.
Besides, China would react strongly towards AUKUS as the U.S. and its allies cooperate to counter China technologically, militarily, strategically and geopolitically. Interestingly, there is duality in the strategic environment in Asia in which the U.S. and its allies continue to focus on security issues in competing with China. On the other hand, China continues to play the economic long game to win the hard-in-mind states in ASEAN.
AUKUS, generally, has the implications for Cambodia and ASEAN. It indicates a growing tension and escalation between the U.S. and China in their competition in Indo-Pacific, which will constrain small states like Cambodia to take side. AUKUS also reveal that Australia and China tension has triggered a strong military respond. As Australia has undergone softer approach towards China, however after joining AUKUS, they will take more serious approaches, rising pressure towards Cambodia. AUKUS, along with the QUAD, may potentially challenge ASEAN centrality.
AUKUS’ agreement on submarine nuclear weapon could potentially weaken international non-proliferation regime. According to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), it “prohibits any non-nuclear weapons states from acquiring nuclear weapons”, which doesn’t prohibit those countries to purchase nuclear power submarine. Therefore, it is an excuse that permitted countries to obtain such lethal vessels and lead to proliferation of such risky arms. Article 3 of NPT mentioned that “non-nuclear weapon states can use nuclear material for non-explosive military use. As using those materials as its own reactor, it will not be safeguarded under International Atomic Energy Agency.” Furthermore, Australian decision to nuclearize its submarine raised a question of the commitments of ASEAN Dialogue partners to comply with ASEAN core documents.
Similarly, two members of AUKUS are members of the QUAD, while they are all major democracies, and the QUAD and AUKUS both look for reinforcing relations between their members’ industry, military, defense and technology sectors which aim to mutually respond to China. The QUAD tends to center vaccine diplomacy, technology sharing, promotions of democracy and human rights, whereas AUKUS are more on the military dimensions of its response to China. AUKUS is part of security arrangements or ecosystem that the U.S. aimed to foster to unite its ally, support its allies military postures, functioning abilities and capabilities to counter China. After Australia completely acquired the submarine nuclear power, the U.S. will have two allies and one security partner. Specifically, Australia will be in Pacific Ocean, the UK will be in Atlantic Ocean and India in Indian Ocean, which will have substantial values and implications for the U.S. and China rivalry.