Afghanistan updates and global security uncertainty
The Taliban again re-takeover Afghanistan, which becomes a sensitive issue in this region. Recently, Afghanistan has failed in the Taliban rule again, which this group has evicted from Afghanistan 20 years ago by the United States. As a result, it has become a worrying issue towards Afghanistan, regional and global security.
Currently, Afghanistan is facing two problems which are humanitarian crisis and terrorist threat. Regarding the humanitarian crisis, thousands of Afghans have attempted flying from the Taliban-led Afghanistan. At the same time, the concern on the terrorist threat is rising, as the bomb attack by ISIS-K at Kabul Airport killed and injured hundreds of Afghans on 26 August 2021.
The Taliban has emerged as the strongest terrorist group among many others, and significantly this group may lead Afghanistan as they try to gain the trust and legitimacy from Afghans per se and the world. Meanwhile, the ISIS group is also the world focal intention. Noticeably, those groups rely financially on especially illegal trades such as selling drugs; meanwhile, there are various sources of income. The financial assistance from the third actors or countries to the terrorist groups remains unclear and lacks evidence to judge so. However, some factions might back the terrorist groups as the Taliban itself used to be supported by some provinces of Pakistan, and only the government involvement was indirect.
The evacuation of people from Afghanistan has caused a chaotic situation and difficulties even to the U.S. and its allies. Hence, the visa application process for Afghans amidst this crisis within a very limited time is very challenging.
China and Russia did not eagerly react to this concern if compared to other allies. However, China recently has invited the Taliban to talk, which perhaps signifies China’s recognition of Taliban-led Afghanistan. On the other hand, the main concern from China is the influences of terrorist groups on regional and international security. As a result, China’s confidence and assistance to the Taliban would, in return, result in Taliban non-alignment with other terrorist groups, especially in Xinjiang. Russia, in particular, is also on the same page as China in maintaining peace in Central Asia since this region is a core area for security protection. Therefore, both countries share a common position in overseeing and preventing any risk occurred from terrorism.
Since the return of power, the Taliban has not imposed any particular policy in Afghanistan yet. Moreover, they have committed to gain its international recognition and confidence and would not be a threat to the region and the world. In persuading the world to legitimize its government, the Taliban has shown its opposition against the terrorist groups. Domestically, the Taliban also convinced Afghans that they would not strip away women’s freedom and education rights two decades ago.
Afghanistan is falling into a very deep crisis which did not reflect any positive sign for both Afghanistan and Afghans in the future. The possible looming terrorist threat is imminent in both Afghanistan per se and the world. When the Taliban took over Kabul, they released many terrorist prisoners whose networks are worldwide, resulting in concern about the terrorist threat to the world.
After the takeover of the Taliban, many major countries, especially the UNSC members, have expressed their concern about the terrorist threat in different countries. In Dr Leng Thearith’s perspective, this crisis is the entry point for their possible cooperation between these two adversarial blocs against the potential threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, the terrorist threat is imminent and strengthening their power and resources worldwide, including Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
Additionally, combating terrorism is a common battle of all countries, including Russia, China, the U.S., and its allies. Both blocs will try to apply different mechanisms to fight against terrorism. For example, China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)[1] is the main mechanism to deal with terrorism, while the U.S. might have other distinctive means. In the future, if the terrorist threat becomes larger and more inevitable, there is a high possibility that both blocs will jointly cooperate through certain mechanisms or policies.
[1] Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an intergovernmental organization created on 15 June 2001 in Shanghai and serve as a Eurasian political, economic and security cooperation.